The Grammy curse

This summer, Calen and I got into a discussion about whether there is a curse on the winner of the Grammy for Best New Artist. In the end we went through all of the winners and divided them into four categories. So, is there a curse?

(Sadly the papers on which the original divisions were written have been lost. I should've scanned them in far sooner.)

• Legends
• Bob Newhart '61
• The Beatles '65
• Marvin Hamlisch '75
• Mariah Carey '91
• Solid careers
• Bobby Darin '60
• Peter Nero '62
• Robert Goulet '63
• Tom Jones '66
• Jose Feleciano '69
• Crosby, Stills, Nash '70
• The Carpenters '71
• Bette Middler '74
• Natalie Cole '76
• Sade '86
• Tracy Chapman '89
• Toni Braxton '94
• Sheryl Crow '95
• Lee Ann Rimes '97
• Christina Aguilera '00
• Alicia Keys '02
• Norah Jones '03
• Maroon 5 '05
• John Legend '06
• Carrie Underwood '07
• Minor careers
• Bobby Gentry '68
• Carly Simon '72
• America '73
• Debbie Boone '78
• A Taste of Honey '79
• Rickie Lee Jones '80
• Christopher Cross '81
• Sheena Easton '82
• Men At Work '83
• Culture Club '84
• Cyndia Lauper '85
• Bruce Hornsby & the Range '87
• Jody Watley '88
• Marc Cohn '92
• Hootie & the Blowfish '96
• Paula Cole '98
• Evanescence '04
• Amy Winehouse '08
• Weak, weak choices
• Starland Vocal Band '77
• Milli Vanilli '90
• Arrested Development '93
• Lauryn Hill '99
• Shelby Lynne '01
• Too soon to tell
• Adele '08
• Zac Brown Band '09
• Bon Iver '11
• fun. '12
• Who?
• The Swingle Sisters '64
• Esperanza Spalding '10

 The count...

• Legends - 4 (but one isn't in music)
• Solid careers - 20
• Minor careers - 18
• Weak, weak choices - 5
• Too soon to tell 4
• Who? - 2

I'm going to say that the award is far from a curse but that it's also not a guarantee of long-term success.